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Showing posts from September, 2020

COVID-19: Exponential Growth in London

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  I predicted on 25th August a second-wave in London in 2-4 weeks time. It looks like the recent media's coverage and the government's policy reaction are consistent with my prediction. The policy response of rule-of-six-in-social-gathering is mild. Hopefully though, it forces people to realise that they cannot afford to relax too much. Nevertheless, from talking to friends & colleagues, I don't get the sense that people are ready to scale back their activity and social events! I have fitted an exponential curve to the recent data and I get a whopping 98% R2 and <1% p-value (OK - R2 is a bit inflated on overlapping data but still.). Here I added to my graph the fitted value and the model's predicted value for the next four weeks. #covid19 #secondwave The full code below. The code is essentially based on my previous post with the additional exponential model in the middle section. library(data.table) library(ggplot2) data_url <- "https://c19downloads.azure